Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,295$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(370 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,980.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,980.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $459$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(64.2 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{441.7}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(441.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,964$ on 2020-05-02

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.5}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(335.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.73 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.5}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 11.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-02

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $674$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(50.1 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,886.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 55.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,886.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 16.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $566$ on 2020-05-02

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,729$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(329 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,710.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,710.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $173$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(37 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166.7}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 17.4)}}\) (asimptote \(166.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,300$ on 2020-05-02

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,193$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(308 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,483.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10,483.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $415$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(38.3 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{542.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(542.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,256$ on 2020-05-02

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,009$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(180 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{977.6}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(977.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(11.1 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.6}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $644$ on 2020-05-02

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,077$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(198 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,755.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,755.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.05 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(77.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,060$ on 2020-05-02

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.08 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{693.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(693.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-05-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $245$ on 2020-05-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Burkina Faso recovered 77%
Niger recovered 62%
Djibouti recovered 49%

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $652$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(177 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{661.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 17.1)}}\) (asimptote \(661.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(10.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(47.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-05-02

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $736$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(233 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{697.5}{1 + 10^{-0.120 (t - 10.4)}}\) (asimptote \(697.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.75 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(58.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $194$ on 2020-05-02

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,112$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(55.7 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,091.6}{1 + 10^{-0.137 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,091.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $424$ on 2020-05-02